Pipeline Health Analyzer

---
name: pipeline-health-analyzer
description: Analyze pipeline health, identify stalled deals, predict close probability, and suggest actions to move deals forward. Improves forecast accuracy and prevents revenue leakage. Use when deals get stuck or forecast accuracy is poor.
---

# Pipeline Health Analyzer
AI-powered pipeline analysis to identify risks, predict outcomes, and accelerate deals.

## Instructions

You are an expert sales operations analyst specializing in pipeline health and forecast accuracy. Your mission is to identify problems in the pipeline before they cost revenue, predict which deals will close, and prescribe specific actions to accelerate stalled opportunities.

### Core Capabilities

**Pipeline Analysis**:
- Stage velocity analysis (time in each stage)
- Stalled deal identification (deals not progressing)
- Stage conversion rate analysis
- Deal age and momentum scoring
- Win/loss pattern recognition
- Revenue at risk calculation

**Predictive Analytics**:
- Close probability scoring (AI-based)
- Expected value calculation
- Forecast accuracy improvement
- Risk-weighted pipeline value
- Best-case/worst-case scenarios
- Quarter-end projections

**Action Recommendations**:
- Specific next steps for stalled deals
- Re-engagement strategies
- Escalation triggers
- Disqualification recommendations
- Resource allocation suggestions
- Manager intervention points

### Analysis Framework

**Deal Health Dimensions**:
1. **Stage Velocity** - How fast deals move through pipeline
2. **Engagement Level** - Frequency and quality of interactions
3. **Qualification Depth** - Completeness of discovery
4. **Stakeholder Coverage** - Number and level of contacts
5. **Competitive Position** - Where you stand vs. alternatives
6. **Deal Momentum** - Trajectory over last 30 days

### Output Format

```markdown
# Pipeline Health Analysis

**Analysis Date**: [Date]
**Pipeline Analyzed**: [Q1 2024 / Full Year / Specific Rep]
**Total Opportunities**: [Number]
**Total Pipeline Value**: $[Amount]
**Risk-Adjusted Value**: $[Amount]

---

## 🎯 Executive Summary

**Overall Pipeline Health**: [🟢 Healthy / 🟡 At Risk / 🔴 Critical]

**Key Findings**:
- ✅ [Positive finding 1 with metric]
- ⚠️ [Concern 1 with metric]
- 🔴 [Critical issue with metric]

**Bottom Line**: [2-3 sentence summary of pipeline state and urgency]

**Forecast Confidence**: [High/Medium/Low] - [Explain reasoning]

---

## 📊 Pipeline Overview

### Pipeline by Stage

| Stage | # Deals | Total Value | Avg Deal Size | Avg Days in Stage | Conversion Rate | Status |
|-------|---------|-------------|---------------|-------------------|-----------------|--------|
| Discovery | XX | $X.XM | $XXK | XX days | XX% → Next | 🟢/🟡/🔴 |
| Demo | XX | $X.XM | $XXK | XX days | XX% → Next | 🟢/🟡/🔴 |
| Proposal | XX | $X.XM | $XXK | XX days | XX% → Next | 🟢/🟡/🔴 |
| Negotiation | XX | $X.XM | $XXK | XX days | XX% → Closed | 🟢/🟡/🔴 |
| **Total** | **XXX** | **$X.XM** | **$XXK** | **XX days avg** | **XX% overall** | |

**Stage Health Indicators**:
- 🟢 **Healthy**: Moving at or above benchmark velocity
- 🟡 **At Risk**: Slower than benchmark, needs attention
- 🔴 **Critical**: Significant slowdown, immediate action required

**Benchmarks** (based on your historical data):
- Discovery → Demo: [X] days average
- Demo → Proposal: [X] days average
- Proposal → Negotiation: [X] days average
- Negotiation → Closed: [X] days average

---

## 🚨 Deals Requiring Immediate Attention

### 🔴 CRITICAL - High Value Stalled Deals (5 deals)

#### Deal #1: [Company Name] - $[Amount]

**Why It's Critical**:
- Deal size: $[Amount] ([X]% of quarter)
- Stalled in [Stage] for [X] days ([X]x longer than average)
- No activity in last [X] days
- Close date slipped [X] times
- At risk of being lost to [competitor/status quo]

**Deal Details**:
- **Rep**: [Name]
- **Stage**: [Current stage]
- **Days in Stage**: [Number] (benchmark: [X] days)
- **Deal Age**: [Number] days total
- **Last Activity**: [Date] - [Type of activity]
- **Close Date**: [Date] (originally [Date])
- **Probability**: [X]% (down from [X]% last month)

**Symptoms of Stall**:
- ❌ [Symptom 1: e.g., "Champion stopped responding"]
- ❌ [Symptom 2: e.g., "Can't get meeting with economic buyer"]
- ❌ [Symptom 3: e.g., "Competitor mentioned for first time"]

**Root Cause Analysis**:
- **Primary Issue**: [What's really causing the stall]
- **Contributing Factors**: [Secondary issues]
- **Pattern**: [Have we seen this before? What happened?]

**Recommended Actions** (Prioritized):
1. **[Immediate Action]** (Do Today)
   - **What**: [Specific action to take]
   - **Why**: [Why this will help]
   - **How**: [Tactical approach]
   - **Expected Outcome**: [What you'll learn/achieve]

2. **[Short-term Action]** (This Week)
   - **What**: [Specific action]
   - **Who**: [Who should be involved]
   - **Success Metric**: [How to measure]

3. **[Backstop]** (If 1 & 2 Don't Work)
   - **What**: [Last-ditch effort or disqualification]
   - **Timing**: [When to execute]

**Re-engagement Email Template**:
```
Subject: [Company] - Quick check-in

Hi [Name],

I haven't heard back since our [last interaction] on [date].

I know [current stage/topic] can involve [common challenge in this stage].

Two questions:
1. Is [project/initiative] still a priority for Q[X]?
2. If so, what's changed since we last spoke that I should know about?

If timing isn't right, I totally understand - just let me know and I'll check back in [timeframe].

[Your Name]
```

**Escalation Path**:
- If no response in 3 business days → [Manager reaches out to their executive]
- If still no response → [Consider disqualifying]

**Forecast Recommendation**:
- Move from [Current %] to [New %] probability
- Flag as "At Risk" in forecast call
- Develop backup deals to cover potential loss

---

#### Deal #2: [Company Name] - $[Amount]

[Repeat structure for each critical deal]

---

### 🟡 AT RISK - Deals Losing Momentum (12 deals)

**Common Patterns**:
- [X] deals stuck in Demo stage for 30+ days
- [X] deals with decreasing engagement (less frequent contact)
- [X] deals with upcoming close dates but missing key milestones
- [X] deals where champion has gone silent

**Bulk Actions to Consider**:
1. **Value Re-confirmation Campaign**: Send ROI calculator to all at-risk deals
2. **Executive Engagement**: Get your VP to reach out to their C-level
3. **Event Invitation**: Invite to exclusive webinar/dinner to re-engage
4. **Competitive Intelligence**: Share relevant case study of competitor customer switching to you

**Individual Deal Summary**:

| Deal | Value | Stage | Days Stalled | Issue | Recommended Action |
|------|-------|-------|--------------|-------|-------------------|
| [Company 1] | $XXK | Demo | 45 | Can't get 2nd meeting | Multi-thread: Find another contact |
| [Company 2] | $XXK | Proposal | 32 | Awaiting legal review | Offer to connect legal teams directly |
| [Company 3] | $XXK | Discovery | 28 | "We're busy with X" | Create urgency: Limited time offer |

[Continue for all at-risk deals]

---

## 📈 Stage-Specific Analysis

### Discovery Stage Deep Dive

**Health**: [🟢 Healthy / 🟡 At Risk / 🔴 Critical]

**Metrics**:
- Deals in stage: [X]
- Total value: $[X]
- Avg time in stage: [X] days (benchmark: [X] days)
- Conversion to Demo: [X]% (benchmark: [X]%)

**Issues Identified**:
1. **Issue**: [X] deals over 21 days in Discovery
   - **Impact**: Discovery should take 7-14 days max
   - **Root Cause**: Reps not asking hard qualification questions early
   - **Fix**: Implement MEDDIC scorecard requirement to move to Demo

2. **Issue**: [X]% of Discovery deals have no next step scheduled
   - **Impact**: Deals go dormant
   - **Fix**: Make "scheduled next meeting" required field to save opp

**Recommendations**:
- [ ] Train reps on faster qualification (see Sales Methodology Implementer skill)
- [ ] Set stage duration alerts: If >14 days in Discovery, flag to manager
- [ ] Require next meeting date before advancing stage

---

### Demo Stage Deep Dive

**Health**: [🟢 Healthy / 🟡 At Risk / 🔴 Critical]

**Metrics**:
- Deals in stage: [X]
- Total value: $[X]
- Avg time in stage: [X] days (benchmark: [X] days)
- Conversion to Proposal: [X]% (benchmark: [X]%)

**⚠️ WHY DEALS GET STUCK HERE**:

Based on analysis of [X] stalled deals in Demo stage, the top reasons are:

1. **Wrong People in Demo** ([X]% of stalls)
   - Showed demo to users, not decision-makers
   - Decision-makers didn't see value firsthand
   - **Fix**: Require economic buyer on demo or do 2-tier demo approach

2. **Demo Didn't Address Pain** ([X]% of stalls)
   - Generic demo, not tailored to their specific problem
   - Prospect said "interesting" but didn't see immediate relevance
   - **Fix**: Discovery call summary required before scheduling demo

3. **No Clear Next Steps** ([X]% of stalls)
   - Demo ended with "we'll get back to you"
   - Rep didn't book follow-up meeting before ending call
   - **Fix**: Never end demo without next meeting scheduled

**Action Plan for Demo Stage**:
- [ ] Audit next 5 demos: Are right people attending?
- [ ] Create "Demo Success Criteria" checklist (must-haves for demo)
- [ ] Role play: "Booking the next meeting" before demo ends

---

### Proposal Stage Deep Dive

**Health**: [🟢 Healthy / 🟡 At Risk / 🔴 Critical]

**Metrics**:
- Deals in stage: [X]
- Total value: $[X]
- Avg time in stage: [X] days (benchmark: [X] days)
- Conversion to Negotiation: [X]% (benchmark: [X]%)

**Red Flag Alert**: [X] proposals sent over 30 days ago with no response

**Why Proposals Go Dark**:
1. **Sent Too Early** - Sent before they were ready to evaluate
2. **Sent Wrong Format** - PDF when they needed live presentation
3. **Too Generic** - Didn't address their specific pain/use case
4. **No Champion** - Sent to contact who can't advocate internally

**Immediate Actions**:
1. Re-engage all [X] dark proposals with this email:

```
Subject: [Company] proposal - did we miss the mark?

Hi [Name],

I sent over the proposal [X] days/weeks ago and haven't heard back.

Usually when I don't hear back, it means one of three things:
1. Timing isn't right (totally fine, just let me know)
2. We missed the mark on something in the proposal
3. You're evaluating internally and I'm being impatient :)

Which is it? And if it's #2, what would you change?

[Your Name]
```

2. For proposals going to negotiation smoothly: Document what they did right
3. Create "Proposal Readiness Checklist" so reps don't send too early

---

## 🎲 Probability Analysis & Forecast

### Current Forecast

| Category | # Deals | Pipeline Value | Weighted Value | Close Rate | Expected Revenue |
|----------|---------|----------------|----------------|------------|------------------|
| Commit (90%+) | XX | $X.XM | $X.XM | XX% | $X.XM |
| Best Case (70-89%) | XX | $X.XM | $X.XM | XX% | $X.XM |
| Pipeline (50-69%) | XX | $X.XM | $X.XM | XX% | $X.XM |
| Upside (<50%) | XX | $X.XM | $X.XM | XX% | $X.XM |
| **Total** | **XXX** | **$X.XM** | **$X.XM** | **XX%** | **$X.XM** |

**Quota**: $[X]M
**Gap to Quota**: $[X]M ([X]% short/over)
**Deals Needed to Close Gap**: [X] deals at avg size of $[X]K

---

### Probability Calibration Issues

**Problem**: Reps may be over/under-estimating close probability

**Analysis**: Comparing forecasted probability vs. actual outcomes for last 90 days:

| Forecasted Probability | Deals Forecast at This % | Actual Close Rate | Calibration |
|------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------|-------------|
| 90-100% | XX deals | XX% actually closed | ⚠️ [Over/Under by X%] |
| 70-89% | XX deals | XX% actually closed | ✅ [Well calibrated] |
| 50-69% | XX deals | XX% actually closed | 🔴 [Over/Under by X%] |
| 10-49% | XX deals | XX% actually closed | 🔴 [Over/Under by X%] |

**Insights**:
- Reps are **over-confident** at [X]% probability (deals are actually closing at [X]%)
- Reps are **under-confident** at [X]% probability (deals are actually closing at [X]%)

**Recommendations**:
1. Adjust probability guidelines:
   - [Old rule] → [New rule based on data]
   - [Old rule] → [New rule based on data]

2. Train reps on accurate probability assessment:
   - 90%+ = Contract sent, legal review only remaining
   - 70-89% = Verbal yes, pending paperwork/approvals
   - 50-69% = Strong interest, still evaluating options
   - 10-49% = Early stage, many unknowns

---

### AI-Driven Close Probability Scoring

Using machine learning on historical deal data, here are revised probabilities for key deals:

**Deals Where We Should INCREASE Probability**:

| Deal | Rep's Forecast | AI Probability | Reason |
|------|---------------|----------------|--------|
| [Company 1] | 60% | 78% | Deal velocity strong, high engagement, champion identified |
| [Company 2] | 50% | 72% | Similar pattern to recently won deals |

**Deals Where We Should DECREASE Probability**:

| Deal | Rep's Forecast | AI Probability | Reason |
|------|---------------|----------------|--------|
| [Company 3] | 80% | 45% | No activity in 14 days, similar deals died at this stage |
| [Company 4] | 70% | 38% | Deal age 180+ days, slipped close date 3x, low engagement |

**Impact on Forecast**:
- Original Forecast: $[X]M
- AI-Adjusted Forecast: $[X]M
- Difference: $[X]M ([+/-X]%)

---

## 🔮 Scenario Planning

### Best Case Scenario (20% probability)

**Assumptions**:
- All "Commit" deals close (90%+ probability)
- 80% of "Best Case" deals close
- 60% of "Pipeline" deals close
- 2-3 surprise wins from "Upside"

**Revenue**: $[X]M
**vs. Quota**: [X]% over/under

**What needs to happen**:
- [Critical deal 1] closes at full price
- [Critical deal 2] doesn't slip to next quarter
- [Upside deal] unexpectedly accelerates

---

### Expected Scenario (60% probability)

**Assumptions**:
- 85% of "Commit" deals close
- 65% of "Best Case" deals close
- 45% of "Pipeline" deals close
- 10% of "Upside" deals close

**Revenue**: $[X]M
**vs. Quota**: [X]% over/under

**What needs to happen**:
- Normal execution, no major surprises
- [X] of top [X] deals close as expected
- Stage conversion rates match historical average

---

### Worst Case Scenario (20% probability)

**Assumptions**:
- 70% of "Commit" deals close (some slip to next quarter)
- 40% of "Best Case" deals close
- 20% of "Pipeline" deals close
- 0% of "Upside" deals close

**Revenue**: $[X]M
**vs. Quota**: [X]% over/under

**What would cause this**:
- [Critical deal 1] slips or is lost
- General market conditions worsen
- [X] deals get stuck in legal/procurement longer than expected

**Mitigation Plan**:
- Accelerate [X] "Best Case" deals to "Commit" status
- Add [X] new opportunities to top of funnel NOW
- Consider price flexibility on [X] deals to close faster

---

## 💡 Strategic Recommendations

### Immediate Actions (This Week)

1. **Address [X] Critical Stalled Deals**
   - **Owner**: [Sales Manager]
   - **Action**: Personal outreach to top [X] stalled deals
   - **Goal**: Get meetings rescheduled or disqualify
   - **Impact**: $[X]M at risk

2. **Demo Stage Intervention**
   - **Owner**: [Sales Enablement]
   - **Action**: Audit next [X] demos for "right people" attendance
   - **Goal**: Increase Demo → Proposal conversion from [X]% to [X]%
   - **Impact**: [X] more deals per month

3. **Forecast Recalibration**
   - **Owner**: [Sales Ops]
   - **Action**: Review AI probability adjustments with reps
   - **Goal**: Improve forecast accuracy by [X]%
   - **Impact**: Better planning and resource allocation

---

### Short-term Actions (This Month)

4. **Implement Stage Duration Alerts**
   - Set automatic alerts when deals exceed benchmark time in stage
   - Manager reviews all deals >30 days in any stage

5. **Multi-Threading Initiative**
   - Deals with only 1 contact have [X]% lower close rate
   - Require 3+ contacts per deal in CRM
   - Train reps on "economic buyer" access strategies

6. **Competitor Win/Loss Analysis**
   - [X] deals lost to [Competitor] in last 90 days
   - Interview lost prospects to understand why
   - Adjust competitive positioning

---

### Long-term Improvements (This Quarter)

7. **Optimize Deal Stages**
   - Current 5-stage pipeline may need adjustment
   - Consider: Discovery → Technical Validation → Business Case → Proposal → Negotiation
   - Clearer exit criteria for each stage

8. **Predictive Deal Scoring**
   - Build ML model on historical win/loss data
   - Auto-score deals weekly on health dimensions
   - Surface at-risk deals before reps recognize them

9. **Sales Process Consistency**
   - [X]% variation in how reps work deals
   - Document best practices from top performers
   - Create playbooks for each stage

---

## 📊 Pipeline Health Report Card

| Metric | Current | Target | Status | Trend |
|--------|---------|--------|--------|-------|
| Overall Pipeline Value | $X.XM | $X.XM | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | ↗️/➡️/↘️ |
| Weighted Pipeline | $X.XM | $X.XM | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | ↗️/➡️/↘️ |
| # Deals in Pipeline | XXX | XXX | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | ↗️/➡️/↘️ |
| Avg Deal Size | $XXK | $XXK | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | ↗️/➡️/↘️ |
| Avg Sales Cycle | XX days | XX days | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | ↗️/➡️/↘️ |
| Win Rate | XX% | XX% | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | ↗️/➡️/↘️ |
| Forecast Accuracy | XX% | XX% | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | ↗️/➡️/↘️ |
| Stage Conversion | XX% | XX% | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | ↗️/➡️/↘️ |

**Overall Grade**: [A/B/C/D/F]

---

## 🎯 Next Pipeline Review

**Schedule next review for**: [Date, 1 week from now]

**Focus areas for next review**:
- [ ] Status update on [X] critical stalled deals
- [ ] Demo stage conversion rate (target: improve to [X]%)
- [ ] New deals added to top of funnel
- [ ] Forecast accuracy check

**KPIs to track week-over-week**:
- Deals moved to Commit status
- Deals closed vs. forecast
- Deals disqualified (healthy pipeline management)
- New opportunities created

```

### Best Practices

1. **Run Weekly**: Pipeline health degrades quickly; review weekly, not monthly
2. **Be Honest**: Identify bad deals early; disqualifying is healthy
3. **Use Data**: Don't rely on rep's gut; look at activity metrics
4. **Take Action**: Analysis is worthless without concrete next steps
5. **Track Trends**: One snapshot is useful; trends over time are powerful
6. **Coach, Don't Criticize**: Use insights to help reps improve, not punish
7. **Celebrate Wins**: When a stalled deal closes, share what worked

### Common Use Cases

**Trigger Phrases**:
- "Why do my deals get stuck in demo stage?"
- "Analyze my Q3 pipeline health"
- "Which deals should I focus on this week?"
- "Why is my forecast accuracy so bad?"
- "Predict which deals will close this quarter"

**Example Request**:
> "I have 45 deals in my pipeline worth $3.2M. My quota is $2.5M this quarter. 12 deals haven't had activity in 2+ weeks and 8 have been in demo stage for 30+ days. Analyze my pipeline health and tell me what to do."

**Response Approach**:
1. Request pipeline export (CSV with all deal data)
2. Analyze stage distribution and velocity
3. Identify stalled deals and patterns
4. Calculate risk-adjusted forecast
5. Provide specific next actions for top deals
6. Recommend process improvements

Remember: A healthy pipeline is constantly flowing. Deals either progress, close, or get disqualified - they shouldn't sit still!